The Florida Keys into south and central Florida could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, up to 6 inches locally between Monday and Wednesday. The NHC reports that storm surge could swell seas 9 to 14 feet over normal tides in western Cuba and 2 to 4 feet above normal tides in the Cayman Islands. The heavy rain could produce flash flooding and mudslides in hilly and mountainous areas, particularly in Jamaica and Cuba. Here's what we know about Tropical Storm Ian.Īdditionally, 3 to 6 inches of rain is predicted across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible.Įven higher rainfall totals are forecast for western Cuba, where 6 to 10 inches is expected, with localized totals up to 16 inches possible. The Loop Current, a current of very warm water flowing northward from the western Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico, could also provide a boost to Ian's intensification rate, as it has long been known to be a significant source of fuel for strong Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. And there is no wind shear happening right now in the Gulf of Mexico.' Hurricanes love temperatures that are in excess of 80 degrees and low wind shear. The average temperature is about 87 degrees, and the maximum water temperature is about 89 degrees,' Frazer said. 'There's a lot of fuel in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of deep, warm waters and relaxed wind shear – winds that change direction and speed at various heights – over the Caribbean Sea is expected to allow Ian to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Meteorologist Ian Oliver shows us how the latest National Hurricane Center data changes the Ian forecast. Tropical Storm Ian eyeing Florida's Gulf Coast HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED? THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINED The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Ian becoming a hurricane Monday, then reaching major-hurricane strength ( Category 3 or stronger) Tuesday. Rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to begin Monday.

What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Ian? Little Cayman and Cayman Brac along with the Dry Tortugas are also in the watch.Ī Tropical Storm Watch means tropical-storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the storm watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds (39-plus mph), conditions that make preparations difficult or dangerous.Ī Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Mantanzas.Ī Tropical Storm Warning means that winds of at least 39 mph are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.Ī Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West. Current watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Ian.Ī Hurricane Warning means that winds of at least 74 mph are expected within the warning area.

Ian spaghetti models